It's OK, every team is guessing
Our teams are operating in increasingly complex environments. We are also increasingly faced with challenges without precedent. In complex systems, there are not linear connections between cause and effect. When we are faced with novel situations, we are not able to rely on the certainty of what has worked in the past.
What does that mean for our teams making decisions about what the best actions are? We take guesses!
People often find this confronting when we discuss this in workshops. It's not comfortable for us to admit that we are guessing. However, if the fact is that there is no precedent for our work and no direct link between cause and effect, how can we be certain of anything? Here are a few names that we have given ourselves for different types of guesses. I'm sure that you can think of more.
Assumption - things that seem to be true and taken for granted
Prediction - our best guess for what we think will happen
Forecast - see prediction.
Estimate - this is more obviously a guess.
Plan - what we think are the best actions to take
All of these things are necessary for our teams to operate. We don't want our teams operating without any sense of what might work or what they are expecting to happen. If our teams are required to guess, we can benefit significantly from embracing this rather than pretend we're operating with certainty in a fully predictable environment.
Surprisingly, teams that are able to acknowledge that they are guessing are better able to operate in the real world. They make a hypothesis about what the right action is likely be, implement something to see if they are right and then pay attention to whether their hypothesis held up. If not, they are less attached to the course of action and are able to adjust their way of operating. When we get attached to our perspectives with certainty and don't acknowledge our guesses, we tend to talk about what "should" be happening instead of what actually is happening.
So what can we do in our teams to help? Here are three ideas:
Acknowledge that we are guessing
By being overt that we are not certain of the reason that things have occurred or if our chosen course of action will definitely work, then we can actually liberate ourselves. We can free up the analysis paralysis of wanting more information and more certainty that may never arise.
2. Make better guesses
Not all guesses are made equal. I would like to be clear that I am not advocating for recklessness! There is a big difference between a wild stab in the dark that has not paid attention to any possible consequences of an action and a more considered plan of action that factors in the best available information, maximises potential benefits and minimises potential risks.
3. Fail better
Much has been written about how failure is important in the way that we work. If we are guessing, we are likely to get it wrong occasionally - or often. What we want in our teams is to fail in ways that improve the way that we can operate, that allow us to improve our predictions and take actions that move us towards our desired outcomes. As much as we can, we want to be able to set up a way of operating that allows us to learn fast. Being open to the possibility that we may not have had all the relevant information or made the right decision initially frees us up to respond sooner and in a more productive way.
There is no doubt that the idea of our teams guessing is challenging for many of us to deal with. We like operating with the illusion of certainty and control. Often it's harmless, perhaps even helpful. Paying attention to when it's limiting the way that our teams operate can make a shift that drives performance.
Here are some questions for you to consider this week with your teams:
What are some of the ways in which your team makes guesses?
How can your team improve its guessing?
Could your team fail better?